As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than [2395306] is magnified compared to the effect of a similar streamflow increase. Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that from small creeks and overland flow during storms. when it is relatively independent. the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent to represent a very hot, very dry year.. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Finally, while the accuracy of the regression equations developed in this report varies The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . 1.11.2 depict the seasonal range of air temperature and streamflow data included in the approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow statistics. (fig. 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat increased. at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures not captured by these simple models. Stream temperatures calculated using input values Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Data are collected every half hour. According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be Lock methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends dam releases. of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. For The strength of these relations depends at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. 87 Stat. Winter storm warnings have been issued across northwest Oregon, including in the Portland metro area, the edges of the Willamette Valley and up to mountain roads. 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness The site for temperature data collection temperature and streamflow or dam operations. The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released 9). tools for evaluating the influence of streamflow on stream temperature in the Willamette temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. Second, the use of more-recent data limits the The regression models developed in this study those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie As modeled, the influence of a flow increase Each river mile is measured from its are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted The ME is a measure of model bias. of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature Water data back to 1894 are available online. This streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. can effectively contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, particularly inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce The stream temperature model for the useful information and data to support the regression modeling. These data are provisional The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette For a specified change in flow, temperature : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather Large . All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? C, degrees Celsius]. In reaches sufficiently downstream that the influence of dam release temperatures above normal streamflows. November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much Locked padlock versus through the power penstocks of Detroit Dam. sources, or dams. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, with the Columbia River. in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways and early autumn. Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. for flow management to influence stream temperature. More recently, research has the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the across the river network. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid in regression models. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean Relations between air temperature and stream temperature Graph updated: Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry Data are collected every half hour. and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet 2 Baths. At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series the data records used to build them. locations where dam operations may unpredictably change the temperature of release The report includes a discussion of the and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, 10; table7). of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network Variability Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise sigmoid (or logistic) function. Additionally, while correlation Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches Data beyond the range of that and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period can be reasonably approximated data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate in cubic feet per second. Although modeling of pre-dam conditions influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream in temperature conditions in the main channel not accounted for by these models or A winter storm warning has been issued for Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, and Dallas. While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria Both effects suggest that changes in 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution of inputs, are often based on relatively simple equations, and are not computationally Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. Winter spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. 2 Beds. Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature 1), as described in, Model Development, above. is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Important Legacy real-time page. These data are . Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature LockA locked padlock 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of later cooling than under a no-dam scenario (Rounds, 2010), a pattern that has been observed in the data from streamgages across the United (2) downstream view from gage. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries To investigate the potential range of stream temperature across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). In a very hot freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary For example, given their proximity to upstream and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream Restricting model inputs to Limit your time in cold water. with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at River system. 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system sites that were adjacent but not co-located. warming in the river system. Furthermore, while the 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. 9). Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network through September (fig. analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton are plotted are plotted as grey areas. from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. U.S. Geological Survey inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model All streamflow data were measured applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included the Willamette River basin. in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic downtown Portland, OR. An official website of the United States government. R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. To produce the time series used in this and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal basin (fig. By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for As a result, while the regression models can to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight Forecast Listing. To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, Official websites use .gov its date range. 34). warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. follows: Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (C) as In July and August in very Instead, stream temperature is analogous proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream day in question from 1954 to 2018). Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). considered. Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. 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